June real estate stats for the Austin Metro are in! Here's what you need to know.
All eyes remain on the Fed as mortgage rates remain unchanged for the most part. Additionally, the presidential election has added uncertainty to the market (as expected). Both factors have caused demand to drop and prices to slip slightly. The Fed sentiment may be shifting slightly with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers.
Key Highlights
Average & median sold prices declined -4.8% and -5.9% Year Over Year (YOY).
Pending units declined -8.7% YOY.
Active listings increased +22% to 12,500.
Months of Inventory moved up to 4.4 MOI.
YOY Average & Median Prices Decrease
Both average and median sold prices decreased in the 5% range YOY, which is a result of the reduced demand. Real estate pricing is a slow-moving ship, though, and we do not expect to see significant movement on an annual basis. The trendline for average/median sold price for the past 12 months is now slightly negative, but we don’t expect that trend to become worse.
Inventory Levels Peak & Pause for the Holidays
New inventory coming to market (“Active Properties” above) paused for the holiday week and seemed to slightly tick up post-holiday. New inventory may level off now for the summer, which is expected. Normal seasonality has inventory peaking in the summer and then slowly declining until the holidays, when the market hibernates for the winter.
Pending Units & Sold Volume Indicate Lower Buyer Demand
After starting the year strong, the number of pending units and sold volume both declined. Pending units dropped -8.7% year over year, and this metric has begun its normal seasonal monthly decline. Sold volume in the market declined -17.5% monthly year over year, and we are now -1.5% YTD. We expect the YTD number to consistently decrease as we move further into 2024.
New Listings Drop, Active Listings & Inventory Increase
New listings to the market decreased for the first month of the year as many sellers and agents have realized that 2024 is likely not a recovery market. Demand dropped more than new listings, however, which caused active listings to increase by +22% and MOI to rise to 4.4 months.
Election Year Blues?
The conventional wisdom that “election years are bad years” seems to apply here. High mortgage rates and a sluggish job market have been a reality for more than 18 months now. The uncertainty caused by the election seems to have added to our already slow real estate market. We expect uncertainty to increase between now and November, but the silver lining is that we know an end date to this uncertainty.
If You’re a Buyer:
The market is absolutely in your favor with increased supply and reduced demand. Buyers in the Austin Metro have more leverage now than they have had in 10+ years. If you’re not quite ready to buy, that’s also a normal decision. We will have more clarity over Fed monetary policy within a few months and less uncertainty from the election.
If You’re a Seller:
The market is difficult, but you can absolutely succeed with the right strategy. Pricing in a challenging market is critical, and it’s essential to consider your active competition along with recently sold and pending properties. Homes sold for slightly more a few months ago, and you must consider that if you want to sell in 2024.
Our goal as your trusted real estate advisors is to provide you with the information you need to help you reach your investment goals.
As always, real estate is hyperlocal and extremely situational, so please reach out to us to discuss your specific situation. We’d love to help you and strategize what’s in your best interest.
Cheers!
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